Do Elections Impact the Housing Market?

Home Sales: In November of election years, there’s typically a slight slowdown in home sales. Why? Well, some folks feel uncertain during this pivotal time. But fear not! This slowdown is temporary. Historically, home sales bounce back in December and continue rising the following year. Check out the first graph:

The blue bars represent election years, and the green bars show increased home sales in the year after each election. Those two orange bars? They’re the exceptions when sales dipped after an election.

Home Prices: Do home prices drop during election years? Not usually. The price trend remains steady. Home prices tend to rise year-over-year, regardless of elections. Take a look at the second graph:

Blue bars? Yep, election years. Orange? That was during the housing market crash – not your typical year. Today’s market is different.

Mortgage Rates: Mortgage rates matter because they impact your monthly payment. In 8 out of the last 11 election years, rates decreased from July to November. Good news: most forecasts predict slightly lower rates for the rest of this year. Lower rates = happier wallets!  See the third graph:

The Takeaway: While elections do affect the housing market, it’s usually minor and short-lived. Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, sums it up:

“Historically, the housing market doesn’t tend to look very different in presidential election years compared to other years.”

So, buyers and sellers, fret not – elections won’t have much impact on your plans.  Stop waiting and get in the game. 😉